Published and Forthcoming Papers

A "New Trade" Theory of GATT/WTO Negotiations (slides)
Journal of Political Economy, 119(1):122-152, February 2011
(the heterogeneous firm extension can be downloaded here)

Profits in the "New Trade" Approach to Trade Negotiations (slides)
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 102(3): 466-469, May 2012

A Gold Rush Theory of Economic Development
Journal of Economic Geography, 13(1): 107-117, January 2013

Market Size, Division of Labor, and Firm Productivity (with Thomas Chaney)
Journal of International Economics, 90(1): 177-180, May 2013

Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data (slides) ( column)
American Economic Review 104(12): 4104-46, December 2014

Why Trade Matters After All
Journal of International Economics 97(2): 266-277, November 2015
(the elasticity estimates from Table 1 can be downloaded here)

A Global View of Productivity Growth in China (with Chang-Tai Hsieh)
Journal of International Economics 102: 209-224, September 2016

Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy
In: Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. February 2016. Handbook of Commercial Policy. Amsterdam, 207-260 (the programming toolkit can be downloaded here).


Working Papers

A Quantitative Analysis of Subsidy Competition in the U.S. (slides)
also available as NBER Working Paper 20975, March 2018
revision requested by Journal of Public Economics

Accounting for the New Gains form Trade Liberalizaton (slides) ( column) (with Chang-Tai Hsieh, Nicholas Li, and and Mu-Jeung Yang)
also available as NBER Working Paper 22069, January 2018

Disputes in International Investment and Trade
(with Robert W. Staiger and Alan O. Sykes)
preliminary draft, March 2019

Are Trade Agreements Good for You? (slides)
(with Giovanni Maggi)
preliminary draft, June 2019


Other Writings

Wie teuer wäre ein Handelskrieg
Wirtschaftsdienst, Sonderheft 2018: 13-15. April 2018

Was aus der WTO wird, wenn der Handelskrieg vorbei istNeue Zürcher Zeitung, 13 July 2018

The Costs of a Trade War
In: Crowley, M. May 2019. Trade War: The Clash of Economic Systems Endangering Global Prosperity. CEPR Press, 45-49

Handelsabkommen: Kritik ernst nehmen
Die Volkswirtschaft 92: 9-11. August 2019