Research and Publications

Main refereed articles

"Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party in Interwar Germany"
With Shanker Satyanath and Nico Voigtländer.
This version: 2013, NBER wp 19201.
 "Leverage and Beliefs: Personal Experience and Risk Taking in the Amsterdam Repo Market, 1770-1775"
With Peter Koudijs (forthcoming).
"Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780-1850"
With Jörg Baten and Dorothee Crayen. Review of Economics and Statistics , 2014 (forthcoming).
"How the West ‘Invented’ Fertility Restriction"
With Nico Voigtländer. American Economic Review , 103(6): 2227–2264.
"The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe"
With Nico Voigtländer. Review of Economic Studies, 80: 774-811.
"Persecution Perpetuated: The Medieval Origins of Anti-Semitic Violence in Nazi Germany"
With Nico Voigtländer. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(3): 1339-1392.
"Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt and Default in the Age of Philip II, 1556-1598"
With Mauricio Drelichman. Economic Journal, 121(557): 1205-1227 (lead article).
"Serial Defaults, Serial Profits: Returns to Sovereign Lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566-1600"
With Mauricio Drelichman. Explorations in Economic History, 48(1): 1-19 (lead article).
"The Sustainable Debts of Philip II: A Reconstruction of Castile’s Fiscal Position, 1566-1596"
With Mauricio Drelichman. Journal of Economic History, 70(4): 813-42.
"Betting on Hitler: The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany"
With Thomas Ferguson. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(1): 101–137.
"Interest Rate Restrictions in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714"
With Peter Temin. Economic Journal, 118 (March): 743-58.
"Private Borrowing During the Financial Revolution: Hoare’s Bank and its Customers, 1702-1724"
With Peter Temin. Economic History Review, 61(3): 541-64 (lead article).
"Why England? Demographic Factors, Structural Change and Physical Capital Accumulation during the Industrial Revolution"
With Nico Voigtlaender. Journal of Economic Growth, 11(4): 319-61.
"Riding the South Sea Bubble"
With Peter Temin. American Economic Review, 94(5): 1654-68.
"With a Bang, Not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's "Stockmarket Bubble" in 1927 and the Slide into Depression"
Journal of Economic History, 63(1): 65-99.
"Factor Prices and Productivity Growth during the British Industrial Revolution"
With Pol Antràs. Explorations in Economic History, 40(1): 52-77.
"The Longest Years – New Estimates of Labour Input in Britain, 1760-1830"
Journal of Economic History, 61(4):1065-82.
"Destined for Deprivation? Intergenerational Poverty Traps in Eighteenth-Century Britain"
With Sara Horrell and Jane Humphries. Explorations in Economic History, 38(3): 339-65.

In Progress

"Highway to Hitler"
With Nico Voigtländer.
This version: 2015. Download (PDF, 795 KB) (PDF, 1118 KB)
"Recreating the South Sea Bubble: Evidence from an Experiment in Financial History"
With Giovanni Giusti and Charles Noussair.
This version: 2013.
"Debt Into Growth: Why the Country that Borrowed the Most Industrialized First"
With Jaume Ventura.
This version: 2013.
"Exorcizing Hitler: Denazification and Anti-Semitism in Germany, 1933-2006"
With Nico Voigtländer.
This version: 2013, CEPR discussion paper 8935.
"Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009"
With Jacopo Ponticelli.
This version: 2011, CEPR discussion paper 8513. revised October 2012.
"State Capacity and Military Conflict"
With Nicola Gennaioli.
This version: 2011, CEPR discussion paper 8699. revised October 2012.
"Spinning Welfare: The Gains from Process Innovation in Cotton and Car Production"
With Tim Leunig.
This version: 2011, LSE-CEP wp.
"Sweet Diversity: Colonial Goods and the Rise of European Living Standards after 1492"
With Jonathan Hersh.
This version: 2009, CEPR discussion paper 7286, revised June 2011.
"Political Risk and Stock Price Volatility: Evidence from the Interwar Period"
This version: 2007, MIT working paper, February 2002, revised March 2007.

Academic books

"Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt, Taxes, and Default in the Age of Philip II"
With Mauricio Drelichman. Princeton: Princeton University Press, forthcoming.
"Prometheus Shackled: Goldsmith Banks and England’s Financial Revolution after 1700"
With Peter Temin. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press, 2013.
"Time and Work in England, 1750-1830"
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.

Popular books and edited volumes

"Invasion der Heuschrecken. Intriguen – Machtkämpfe - Marktmanipulation"
With Werner Seifert. Berlin: ECON, 2006.
"Krise des Kapitalismus und Neuorientierung der Wirtschaftspolitik "
With Werner Seifert. Frankfurt: Deutsche Börse, 2002.
"Performance ist kein Schicksal"
With Markus Habbel et al. Frankfurt: Campus, 2001.
"European Capital Markets"
With Werner Seifert et al. Houndmills: Macmillan-Palgrave, 2000.
"Aktie, Arbeit, Aufschwung"
With Frank Mattern et al. Houndmills: Frankfurt: Campus, 1997.

Articles in Newspapers, Magazines, etc.

"Debt, Default and Empire: State Capacity and Economic Development in England and Spain in the Early Modern Period"
Economic History Review, forthcoming.
"Funding Empire: Risk, Diversification and the Underwriting of Early Modern Sovereign Loans"
With Mauricio Drelichman. Festschrift for Joel Mokyr, forthcoming.
"Gifts of Mars: Warfare and Europe’s Early Rise to Riches"
With Nico Voigtländer. Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(4), forthcoming.
"Married to Intolerance: Attitudes Towards Intermarriage in Germany, 1900-2006"
American Economic Review. Papers and Proceedings 103(3): 1-9, 2013.
"Tightening Tensions - Fiscal Policy and Civil Unrest in Eleven South American Countries, 1937-1995"
in: Luis Cespedes, Jordi Galí (eds.) Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance. Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 2012.
"Blowing Early Bubbles – Incentives for Exuberance in the South Sea and Mississippi Bubbles"
in: William N. Goetzmann, Catherine Labio, K. Geert Rouwenhorst, and Timothy Young (eds.) The Great Mirror of Folly: Finance, Culture, and the Crash of 1720. Santiago: , New Haven: Yale University Press, 2011.
"Hoare’s Bank in the Eighteenth Century"
in: Laura Cruz and Joel Mokyr (eds.) The Birth of Modern Europe: Culture and Economy, 1400-1800; Essays in Honor of Jan de Vries. Leiden/Boston: Brill, 2010.
"Understanding Growth in Early Modern Europe"
With Joel Mokyr. in: Broadberry, Stephen and Kevin O’ Rourke (ed.) The Cambridge Economic History of Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
"Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001"
With Denis Quinn. NBER-ISOM Macro Annual 2009, vol. 6: 7-39 (lead article), 2010.
"Malthusian Dynamism and the Rise of Europe: Make War, not Love"
With Nico Voigtländer. American Economic Review. Papers and Proceedings 99(2): 248-54, 2009.
"Institutions and the Resource Curse in Early Modern Spain"
With Mauricio Drelichman. in: Helpman, Elhanan (ed) Institutions and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2008.
"A Century of Global Equity Market Correlations"
With Dennis Quinn. American Economic Review. Papers and Proceedings 98(2): 535–40, 2008.
"Debt Sustainability in Historical Perspective"
With Mauricio Drelichman. Journal of the European Economic Association. Paper and Proceedings 6(2-3): 657-67, 2008.
"South Sea Bubble"
Entry for Steve Durlauf and L. Blume, (eds.) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2007.
"Comment on Oxley’s “Seat of Death and Terror”"
With Tim Leunig. Economic History Review, 2006.
"Banking as an Emerging Technology: Hoare’s Bank 1702-1724"
With Peter Temin. Financial History Review 13(2): 149-78, 2006.
"Capital Controls in Postwar Europe"
CREI Opuscle No. 14 [in English, Castilian, and Catalan], 2004.
"Editors’ Introduction: Symposium on Capital Controls"
With Barry Eichengreen. in: Barry Eichengreen, Hans-Joachim Voth (eds.) Controlling Global Capital. Special issue of the International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2003.
"Convertibility, Currency Controls and the Cost of Capital in Western Europe"
in: Barry Eichengreen, Hans-Joachim Voth (eds.) Controlling Global Capital. Special issue of the International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2003.
"Labor Time"
in: Joel Mokyr. (ed.) Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003.
"Living Standards and Urban Disamenities"
in: R. Floud, P. Johnson (eds.) Cambridge Economic History of Britain, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
"Living Standards During the Industrial Revolution: An Economists’ Guide"
American Economic Review. Papers and Proceedings 93(2): 221-226, 2003.
"Height and the High Life – What Future for a Tall Story?"
With Tim Leunig. in: P. David, M. Thomas (eds.) Economic Challenges of the 21st Century. British Academy, 2002.
"The Zollverein and the Bid for Economic Supremacy"
in: P. Dwyer (ed.) Modern Prussian History, 1830-1947. London: Longman, 2001.
"Smallpox Really Did Reduce Height: A Reply to Razzell"
With Tim Leunig. Economic History Review 54, 2001.
"Economic History and the Messiness of Life"
in: P. Hudson (ed.) Living Economic and Social History. Glasgow, 2001.
"The Grapes of War: Danish Shipping to the Mediterranean, 1750-1806"
With Dan Anderson. Scandinavian Economic History Review 48: 5-27, 2000.
"German Banking and the Impact of the First World War"
in: C. Wrigley (ed.) The First World War and the International Economy. London: Edward Elgar, 2000.
"Smallpox Did Reduce Height: Reply to Our Critics"
With Tim Leunig. Economic History Review 51, 1998.
"Work and the Sirens of Consumption in 18C London"
in: M. Bianchi (ed.) The Active Consumer. Novelty and Surprise in Consumer Choice. London: Routledge, 1998.
"Stature and Relative Deprivation: Fatherless Children in Early Industrial Britain"
With Jane Humphries, Sara Horrell. Continuity and Change 13: 73-115, 1998.
"Time Use in Eighteenth Century London: Some Evidence from the Old Bailey"
Dissertation Summary. Journal of Economic History 57, 1997.
"Infant Mortality during the First World War"
Annales de Démographie Historique: 291-307, 1995.
"Work, Height, and Nutrition: Recasting the 'Austrian Model'"
Journal of Interdisciplinary History 26: 627-636, 1995.
"Did Neutrality Pay? Danish Shipping in the Mediterranean, 1749-1790"
With D. Andersen. in: A. Monrad-Møller (ed.) Folk og Erhverv. Festschrift for Hans-Christian Johansen. Odense, 1995.
"Seasonality of Conceptions as a Source for Historical Time-Budget Analysis: Tracing the Disappearance of Holy Days in Early Modern England"
Historical Methods 27, 1994.
"Wages, Investment and the Fate of the Weimar Republic: A Long-Term Perspective"
German History 11: 265-92, 1994.
"Investitionen in den "Goldenen Jahren" der Weimarer Republik"
Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften 113, 1993.